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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still