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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."