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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.